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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 36 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 32 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
65%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
714 picks · 345 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 629 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
498 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1168 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
408 picks · 255 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 685 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 405 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
351 picks · 397 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total51% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:28
4Pirates 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 36:17.
Game 2prediction correct30:40
4Pirates 49%Kalmychata 51%
The model gave 51% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 51%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2