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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 25 games
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 22 games
32%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 21 game
62%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 15 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 13 games
23%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
707 picks · 345 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 625 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
492 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 1158 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 682 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
401 picks · 257 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
388 picks · 399 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 395 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 37%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Yellow Submarine 60%Level UP 40%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawInfernal
52% · 207 games47% · 201 game
MedusaNikobaby
Medusa
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebottega
52% · 296 games46% · 204 games
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirele
54% · 300 games49% · 420 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfireprblms
52% · 391 game54% · 239 games
Pugnakur0patbI4
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerHtrd
47% · 190 games47% · 320 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct29:33
Yellow Submarine 60%Level UP 40%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirele
45% · 278 games49% · 311 games
TerrorbladeNikobaby
Terrorblade
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
48% · 274 games48% · 444 games
PangolierMaTson
Pangolier
Mars
MarsInfernal
50% · 250 games55% · 146 games
LycanpJonn
Lycan
Tusk
Tuskprblms
56% · 438 games46% · 228 games
RingmasterGilgir
Ringmaster
Bane
BaneHtrd
58% · 205 games45% · 316 games
Jakirokur0patbI4
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 69%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2