DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
xn丶e · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 11 games
eSpoiled
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 28 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
Tusk
Wein · 25 games
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 22 games
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
706 picks · 344 bans
Disruptor
591 picks · 621 bans
Hoodwink
489 picks · 254 bans
Puck
407 picks · 1152 bans
Mars
400 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
398 picks · 255 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 392 bans
Pugna
345 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tea
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:28
Team Tea 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherShigetsu
Troll Warlordssnovv1
BristlebackCloud
Puckdualrazee
Void Spiritxn丶e
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
PudgeOneJey
Chenasdekor_r
SilencerKaori
TuskWein
Game 2prediction missed24:37
Team Tea 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 50:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShigetsu
Alchemistssnovv1
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Shadow Fienddualrazee
BeastmasterCloud
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
PugnaKaori
TinyWein
PudgeOneJey
Batriderasdekor_r
Game 3prediction missed10:33
Team Tea 57%eSpoiled 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tea — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackCloud
Morphlingssnovv1
SlarkShigetsu
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Bounty HunterOneJey
BatriderWein
GyrocopterKaori
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 62%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3