CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 45 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 41 game
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 41 game
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 33 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 24 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
705 picks · 344 bans
Disruptor
589 picks · 621 bans
Hoodwink
485 picks · 254 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1150 bans
Mars
400 picks · 679 bans
Tusk
398 picks · 251 bans
Dragon Knight
384 picks · 387 bans
Pugna
346 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head8 – 1
Model total64% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Runa Team 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladenesfeer
BeastmasterNefrit
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
AbaddonKami
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
PuckWorick
Hoodwinkqueezy
DisruptorSe
JakiroHduo
GrimstrokedEsire
Game 2prediction correct27:29
Runa Team 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopternesfeer
AbaddonKami
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Storm SpiritWorick
SlardarAlberkaaa
Night StalkerNefrit
Batriderqueezy
HoodwinkdEsire
DisruptorHduo
EnchantressSe
Game 3prediction missed19:28
Runa Team 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonnesfeer
MedusaKami
Earthshakernicky`cool
BeastmasterNefrit
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Sand KingWorick
WarlockHduo
DisruptorSe
Hoodwinkqueezy
GrimstrokedEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 64%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3