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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 36 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 35 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 32 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 32 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 25 games
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 20 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
705 picks · 343 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
588 picks · 620 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
484 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1152 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 679 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
399 picks · 252 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
384 picks · 387 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
346 picks · 394 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:29
4Pirates 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautzvёzd
45% · 50 games53% · 228 games
Abaddonv1olent-
Abaddon
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
50% · 318 games56% · 189 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Mars
Marsмистер мораль
54% · 170 games53% · 187 games
DoomBb3px
Doom
Disruptor
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
48% · 193 games45% · 258 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
46% · 162 games46% · 31 game
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct18:39
4Pirates 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcizvёzd
55% · 127 games63% · 13 games
Kezv1olent-
Kez
Venomancer
VenomancerNattyNarwhal
61% · 34 games48% · 256 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
46% · 94 games49% · 179 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
48% · 181 game51% · 269 games
WarlockRESPECT
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
45% · 301 game51% · 20 games
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 58%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2