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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 21 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
27%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 27 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 25 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 21 game
38%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 21 game
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
701 picks · 342 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 618 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 253 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1146 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 674 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 250 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
379 picks · 380 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 391 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:24
Team Tidebound 67%eSpoiled 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 1:00:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenshiro
44% · 171 game51% · 367 games
Puckdualrazee
Puck
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
51% · 193 games49% · 255 games
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Gyrocopter
Slardar
SlardarEcho
51% · 130 games43% · 154 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Void Spirit
Void SpiritpLAnet
58% · 245 games52% · 222 games
DisruptorWein
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
51% · 259 games
Game 2prediction missed10:20
Team Tidebound 66%eSpoiled 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
46% · 138 games51% · 120 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Doom
Doomniu
48% · 149 games55% · 177 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierEcho
44% · 231 game51% · 405 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
51% · 213 games57% · 228 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Pugna
Pugnay`
45% · 199 games
Game 3prediction correct22:26
Team Tidebound 66%eSpoiled 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
52% · 259 games49% · 305 games
Templar Assassinssnovv1
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
58% · 353 games47% · 415 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Puck
PuckEcho
56% · 318 games50% · 182 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterpLAnet
46% · 201 game48% · 453 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Disruptor
Disruptory`
47% · 224 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 80%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3