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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 35 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 34 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 32 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 31 game
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
701 picks · 342 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 618 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 253 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1146 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 674 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 250 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
379 picks · 380 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 391 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total60% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:44
Kalmychata 60%4Pirates 40%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 45:28.
Game 2prediction missed43:27
Kalmychata 60%4Pirates 40%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 37:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 60%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2