Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction55Guyswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5Guys
No games played over 6 months.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
755 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 445 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 603 bans
Snapfire
388 picks · 269 bans
Death Prophet
377 picks · 639 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 755 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% 5Guys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 5Guys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
5Guys 57%GRIN esports 43%
The model gave 57% on 5Guys — the game was taken by 5Guys.
Game 2prediction correct
5Guys 57%GRIN esports 43%
The model gave 57% on 5Guys — the game was taken by 5Guys.
Model check result
Model favorite5Guys · 57%
Series result5Guys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2