Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction55Guysloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5Guys
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
Doomoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
755 picks · 482 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 582 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 604 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
377 picks · 640 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 755 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
5Guys 48%TiltedBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by 5Guys.
Game 2prediction correct
5Guys 48%TiltedBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Game 3prediction correct
5Guys 48%TiltedBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultTiltedBoys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3