Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 10 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Snapfire
bgod · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
Abaddon
Overlom · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 267 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 500 bans
Mars
368 picks · 514 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 481 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 430 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 497 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
5ManMidas 30%5RATFORCESTAFF 70%
The model gave 70% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:27.
Game 2prediction correct15:38
5ManMidas 30%5RATFORCESTAFF 70%
The model gave 70% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 37:55.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 70%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2