Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidaswin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Feltloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Felt
Dragon Knight
Zore · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Yellow Flash · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
solji · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
solji · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Yellow Flash · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
274 picks · 410 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 391 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 645 bans
Bane
240 picks · 183 bans
Weaver
230 picks · 435 bans
Lina
216 picks · 474 bans
Lion
206 picks · 107 bans
Void Spirit
206 picks · 263 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
5ManMidas 47%Felt 53%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 33:37.
Game 2prediction correct24:40
5ManMidas 47%Felt 53%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 38:22.
Game 3prediction correct33:10
5ManMidas 47%Felt 53%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 32:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 53%
Series result5ManMidas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3