Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KBU.USwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
388 picks · 279 bans
Mars
374 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 713 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 341 bans
Ember Spirit
233 picks · 310 bans
Kunkka
233 picks · 393 bans
Disruptor
231 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:40
5ManMidas 27%KBU.US 73%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 52:25.
Game 2prediction correct15:33
5ManMidas 27%KBU.US 73%
The model gave 73% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 30:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 73%
Series resultKBU.US 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2