Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 664 bans
Tiny
477 picks · 448 bans
Bane
455 picks · 278 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 496 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 576 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total56% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
5ManMidas 44%KBU.US 56%
The model gave 56% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 31:24.
Game 2prediction correct26:45
5ManMidas 44%KBU.US 56%
The model gave 56% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 31:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 56%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2