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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KBU.USwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Speeed · 11 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
80%

KBU.US

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
718 picks · 567 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
498 picks · 660 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
495 picks · 1024 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
490 picks · 801 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 428 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 160 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
329 picks · 395 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 578 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:42
5RATFORCESTAFF 44%KBU.US 56%
The model gave 56% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 1:02:02.
Game 2prediction missed29:9
5RATFORCESTAFF 44%KBU.US 56%
The model gave 56% on KBU.US — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 33:31.
Game 3prediction correct30:39
5RATFORCESTAFF 44%KBU.US 56%
The model gave 56% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 50:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 56%
Series resultKBU.US 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3