Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Stratyk Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 11 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
red2 · 7 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Giant · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Stratyk Gaming
Chaos Knightoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Razoroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 266 bans
Mars
406 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
327 picks · 378 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 642 bans
Weaver
298 picks · 369 bans
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 417 bans
Sand King
272 picks · 341 bans
Queen of Pain
264 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:7
5RATFORCESTAFF 78%Stratyk Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 23:08.
Game 2prediction correct41:12
5RATFORCESTAFF 78%Stratyk Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 37:34.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 78%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2