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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
80%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
dnm · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
80%

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
23%
Tiny
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
lukiluki · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 449 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
420 picks · 891 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 585 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 469 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
351 picks · 179 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 209 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
311 picks · 367 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
295 picks · 573 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength64% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
5RATFORCESTAFF 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF.
Game 2prediction correct
5RATFORCESTAFF 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp.
Game 3prediction missed
5RATFORCESTAFF 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 62%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3