?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 24 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Giant · 9 games
11%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
albinozebra · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dnm · 6 games
33%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 6 games
67%

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 9 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
yarintheslayer · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
371 picks · 588 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
324 picks · 570 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 204 bans
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
241 picks · 470 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
237 picks · 336 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
226 picks · 725 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
207 picks · 249 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
206 picks · 302 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total50% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:35
5RATFORCESTAFF 51%Team DogChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 53:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
VisageSpeeed
56% · 108 games48% · 7 games
TinkerRCY
Tinker
Luna
Lunadnm
54% · 64 games49% · 222 games
DawnbreakerITALIANO GANGSTA
Dawnbreaker
Marci
MarciMoOz
54% · 245 games40% · 101 game
Zeusyarintheslayer
Zeus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinalbinozebra
56% · 136 games50% · 80 games
BloodseekerDouble King
Bloodseeker
40% · 143 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed38:27
5RATFORCESTAFF 48%Team DogChamp 52%
The model gave 52% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassindnm
55% · 169 games48% · 89 games
Keeper of the LightITALIANO GANGSTA
Keeper of the Light
Broodmother
BroodmotherSpeeed
51% · 43 games50% · 195 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireMoOz
50% · 209 games46% · 39 games
SvenDouble King
Sven
Jakiro
Jakiroalbinozebra
47% · 72 games52% · 13 games
Techiesyarintheslayer
Techies
52% · 157 games
ClockwerkBloody Nine
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 50%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2