Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO1
result vs prediction
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The Cutloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Lil_Nick · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
dnm · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Speeed · 5 games
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techies
bgod · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
596 picks · 456 bans
Mars
418 picks · 647 bans
Puck
408 picks · 866 bans
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 514 bans
Bane
371 picks · 250 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 168 bans
Ember Spirit
332 picks · 620 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 23%
Hero pool strength65% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
5RATFORCESTAFF 53%The Cut 47%
The model gave 53% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightdnm
WeaverScourge McDuck
RazorSpeeed
DawnbreakerRajjix
Winter Wyvernalbinozebra
Void Spirithigh_shaggy
MarciGiant
Skywrath Magebgod
46% · 125 games
IoJubei
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 52%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1