DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 17 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 11 games
Most Wanted
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Tusk
Ponlo · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
423 · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 3 games
Iooften banned
Rein · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
700 picks · 338 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 615 bans
Hoodwink
476 picks · 253 bans
Puck
401 picks · 1138 bans
Mars
395 picks · 671 bans
Tusk
392 picks · 250 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 376 bans
Pugna
342 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
Team Tea 58%Most Wanted 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Meepo423
UrsaShigetsu
MarcifortniteMan
LycanCloud
Ember Spiritniche
SilencerKaori
DazzleRein
Skywrath MageOneJey
Shadow DemonPonlo
Game 2prediction missed13:39
Team Tea 56%Most Wanted 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerShigetsu
Terrorblade423
Leshracxn丶e
Void Spiritniche
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
MarsfortniteMan
PudgeOneJey
TuskPonlo
Shadow DemonKaori
EnchantressRein
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 64%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2