DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionPPPerrito Panzonwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TPTeam Publicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perrito Panzon
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 6 games
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 4 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 4 games
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Jakiro
MoOz · 3 games
Team Public
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shad · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 3 games
Clockwerk
Puppey · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 3 games
Jakiro
Jeezy · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
700 picks · 338 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 615 bans
Hoodwink
476 picks · 253 bans
Puck
401 picks · 1138 bans
Mars
395 picks · 671 bans
Tusk
392 picks · 250 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 376 bans
Pugna
342 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
Perrito Panzon 60%Team Public 40%
The model gave 60% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterCostabile
Dragon KnightShad
Monkey KingPiPi
Bristlebackmangekyou
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
LeshracAdzantick
BatriderElmisho
ChenPuppey
SnapfireMoOz
Skywrath MageJeezy
Game 2prediction missed9:39
Perrito Panzon 61%Team Public 39%
The model gave 61% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Team Public in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackCostabile
WeaverShad
Dragon KnightPiPi
Beastmastermangekyou
PangolierILICH-
Queen of PainAdzantick
PhoenixMoOz
HoodwinkJeezy
Dark WillowElmisho
ClockwerkPuppey
Game 3prediction correct31:22
Perrito Panzon 60%Team Public 40%
The model gave 60% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 38:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerCostabile
TerrorbladeShad
HuskarPiPi
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Queen of PainILICH-
Pangoliermangekyou
ChenMoOz
Keeper of the LightJeezy
TinyElmisho
DazzlePuppey
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 70%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3