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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 26 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 25 games
52%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 21 game
81%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
700 picks · 338 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 615 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 253 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1138 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 671 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 250 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 376 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
342 picks · 392 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total55% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:6
eSpoiled 45%Kalmychata 55%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:16.
Game 2prediction correct20:29
eSpoiled 45%Kalmychata 55%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 40:09.
Game 3prediction missed49:31
eSpoiled 45%Kalmychata 55%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 53:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 55%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3