European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circlewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 23 games
Tiny
Niku · 16 games
Snapfire
Zayac · 13 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 13 games
Warlock
Riddys · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Niku · 11 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 9 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 13 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Jakiro
flacko · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
698 picks · 337 bans
Disruptor
579 picks · 613 bans
Hoodwink
476 picks · 253 bans
Puck
400 picks · 1136 bans
Mars
395 picks · 670 bans
Tusk
392 picks · 250 bans
Dragon Knight
373 picks · 374 bans
Pugna
341 picks · 392 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 34%
Hero pool strength61% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:46
Natus Vincere Junior 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinonLiTaL
Troll Warlordyowaai
Axekrol9ash
PangolierNorma
Slardargbc
Sand Kingспортик
SnapfireGothic-
Enchantressflacko
JakiroHyugadoto
Shadow DemonFernans
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Natus Vincere Junior 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinkergbc
Dragon Knightyowaai
LifestealeronLiTaL
BeastmasterNorma
Slardarkrol9ash
Queen of Painспортик
SnapfireHyugadoto
Enchantressflacko
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Dark WillowFernans
Game 3prediction correct22:44
Natus Vincere Junior 43%Inner Circle 57%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckgbc
Svenyowaai
UrsaonLiTaL
Sand Kingспортик
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
PangolierNorma
GrimstrokeGothic-
Skywrath MageFernans
PugnaHyugadoto
Baneflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 65%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3