?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 44 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 40 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
71%

Team Spirit Academy

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 3 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 3 games
0%
Venomancer
Venomancer
86 · 3 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
697 picks · 337 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 615 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
475 picks · 252 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1135 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 670 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 250 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
371 picks · 374 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
341 picks · 392 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:29
Runa Team 79%Team Spirit Academy 21%
The model gave 79% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonnesfeer
49% · 160 games47% · 150 games
Medusarubikon155
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
46% · 88 games53% · 199 games
Earthshaker86
Earthshaker
Slark
SlarkAlberkaaa
51% · 47 games51% · 159 games
MarciSunshineRR
Marci
Chen
ChenHduo
57% · 94 games59% · 10 games
Witch DoctorAidar
Witch Doctor
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
44% · 154 games50% · 25 games
Miranakyford
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct38:18
Runa Team 79%Team Spirit Academy 21%
The model gave 79% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
49% · 162 games51% · 419 games
Dragon Knightrubikon155
Dragon Knight
Batrider
Batridernicky`cool
53% · 137 games49% · 76 games
Sniper86
Sniper
Tidehunter
TidehunterAlberkaaa
50% · 69 games52% · 22 games
VisageSunshineRR
Visage
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
44% · 110 games41% · 9 games
Witch DoctorAidar
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
DisruptorHduo
53% · 92 games51% · 44 games
Miranakyford
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct36:20
Runa Team 81%Team Spirit Academy 19%
The model gave 81% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarnicky`cool
44% · 24 games50% · 217 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnesfeer
52% · 190 games46% · 144 games
Earth Spirit86
Earth Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierAlberkaaa
48% · 238 games56% · 36 games
VenomancerSunshineRR
Venomancer
Chen
ChenHduo
54% · 108 games50% · 249 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonqueezy
48% · 122 games51% · 36 games
Spirit BreakerAidar
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 93%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3