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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 22 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 45 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 44 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 40 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 35 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
694 picks · 337 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 612 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
474 picks · 252 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 1135 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
394 picks · 250 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 670 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
369 picks · 373 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
340 picks · 392 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total74% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
HULIGANI 37%Runa Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
51% · 271 game52% · 237 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
51% · 263 games41% · 185 games
Queen of Painnicky`cool
Queen of Pain
Huskar
Huskarerase
53% · 65 games50% · 251 game
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
50% · 421 game48% · 251 game
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
44% · 33 games58% · 129 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Game 2prediction correct15:33
HULIGANI 37%Runa Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
50% · 213 games45% · 234 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawBb3px
50% · 248 games48% · 250 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal Beasterase
49% · 180 games45% · 189 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Slark
Slarkslimeyao
58% · 80 games49% · 147 games
Leshracqueezy
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
49% · 332 games58% · 233 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed40:35
HULIGANI 39%Runa Team 61%
The model gave 61% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 47:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheterase
56% · 352 games54% · 302 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
51% · 299 games41% · 308 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Slark
Slarkslimeyao
56% · 104 games46% · 360 games
TuskAlberkaaa
Tusk
Mars
MarsBb3px
47% · 285 games53% · 54 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
55% · 345 games45% · 361 game
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 74%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3