UNIVERSE by FISSURE · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwink
not me · 36 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
not me · 21 game
Dark Willowsignature
not me · 17 games
Doomsignature
Collapse · 17 games
Rubicksignature
not me · 17 games
Largooften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Techiesoften banned
not me · 14 games
LEGION
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 9 games
Witch Doctor
Kidaro · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 8 games
Brewmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Largooften banned
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Lone Druidsignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Miranasignature
Kidaro · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
604 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
558 picks · 342 bans
Mirana
460 picks · 202 bans
Winter Wyvern
445 picks · 391 bans
Windranger
423 picks · 209 bans
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 574 bans
Earth Spirit
334 picks · 607 bans
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total93% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:18
Team Spirit 78%LEGION 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYatoro
LinaStojkov
EarthshakerLarl
LifestealerDarkLord^
MarsBatyuk
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Techiesrue
HoodwinkKJ
Dark Willownot me
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Game 2prediction correct36:32
Team Spirit 79%LEGION 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:03:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYatoro
WindrangerDarkLord^
TidehunterBatyuk
LargoSabeRLight-
Sand KingLarl
Ember SpiritStojkov
Hoodwinknot me
Dark Willowxsvampire
Witch Doctorrue
DazzleKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 93%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2