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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 14 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 13 games
23%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
MaTson · 10 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 32 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 29 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
43%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
692 picks · 336 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 610 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
470 picks · 250 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 1133 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 670 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
366 picks · 370 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
339 picks · 388 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:46
Level UP 35%Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 53:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNikobaby
53% · 203 games45% · 285 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckMaTson
50% · 294 games50% · 138 games
TimbersawNefrit
Timbersaw
Abaddon
Abaddonemptiness
53% · 239 games52% · 154 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Enchantress
Enchantresskur0patbI4
53% · 186 games47% · 202 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGilgir
48% · 18 games46% · 161 game
SilencerSe
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed41:32
Level UP 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNikobaby
55% · 188 games52% · 50 games
JuggernautKami
Juggernaut
Slardar
SlardarMaTson
48% · 111 games52% · 313 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Marci
Marciemptiness
51% · 159 games46% · 227 games
MarsNefrit
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirekur0patbI4
52% · 303 games48% · 294 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGilgir
53% · 178 games42% · 55 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct14:39
Level UP 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNikobaby
55% · 175 games52% · 137 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMaTson
49% · 114 games49% · 323 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batrideremptiness
53% · 220 games48% · 228 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkkur0patbI4
43% · 186 games54% · 43 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Tusk
TuskGilgir
47% · 301 game53% · 265 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3