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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Teawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
38%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 11 games
18%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
691 picks · 334 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 608 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 250 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1129 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 668 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
364 picks · 365 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
337 picks · 386 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Team Tidebound 65%Team Tea 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tea in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightshiro
48% · 292 games50% · 56 games
LunaShigetsu
Luna
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEcho
54% · 265 games53% · 306 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Slardar
Slardarniu
46% · 145 games48% · 314 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritpLAnet
50% · 134 games55% · 66 games
PudgeOneJey
Pudge
Disruptor
Disruptory`
50% · 223 games46% · 317 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed10:25
Team Tidebound 64%Team Tea 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tea in 25:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezshiro
60% · 17 games49% · 114 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
58% · 353 games46% · 198 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastEcho
48% · 177 games42% · 118 games
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Centaur Warrunner
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagepLAnet
52% · 46 games47% · 159 games
PugnaKaori
Pugna
Bane
Baney`
60% · 163 games41% · 167 games
JakiroOneJey
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 76%
Series resultTeam Tea 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2