European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RJRoyal Jellywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Snapfire
slimeyao · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
Royal Jelly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
691 picks · 334 bans
Disruptor
573 picks · 608 bans
Hoodwink
468 picks · 250 bans
Puck
394 picks · 1129 bans
Mars
392 picks · 668 bans
Tusk
392 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
364 picks · 365 bans
Pugna
337 picks · 386 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
HULIGANI 72%Royal Jelly 28%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Magev1olent-
Night StalkerMiyaoo
Dragon Knighterase
Storm SpiritStojkov
Dark SeerCorrupted
Snapfireani-san
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
JakiroRESPECT
Game 2prediction missed19:34
HULIGANI 74%Royal Jelly 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskarv1olent-
PuckStojkov
Void Spiriterase
PangolierMiyaoo
Primal BeastCorrupted
Ringmasterani-san
Naga SirenRESPECT
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Game 3prediction missed18:39
HULIGANI 75%Royal Jelly 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusav1olent-
PuckStojkov
Void Spiriterase
SlardarMiyaoo
Night StalkerCorrupted
Hoodwinkani-san
Ringmasterslimeyao
Naga SirenRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultRoyal Jelly 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3