?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
kyford · 3 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 3 games
0%
Venomancer
Venomancer
86 · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 2 games
0%
Lich
Lich
Aidar · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
SunshineRR · 2 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
43%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 21 game
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
689 picks · 332 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 605 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 245 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 665 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 1128 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 247 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 359 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
339 picks · 152 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:37
Team Spirit Academy 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magerubikon155
48% · 38 games52% · 172 games
Abaddonbottega
Abaddon
Puck
Puck86
43% · 293 games50% · 113 games
LeshracMirele
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSunshineRR
47% · 232 games50% · 228 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Techies
TechiesAidar
50% · 34 games54% · 97 games
SlardarInfernal
Slardar
Enchantress
Enchantresskyford
47% · 137 games63% · 124 games
Naga SirenHtrd
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed37:20
Team Spirit Academy 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonrubikon155
53% · 221 game51% · 269 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshaker86
52% · 254 games48% · 108 games
Lifestealerbottega
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSunshineRR
51% · 217 games49% · 112 games
SlardarInfernal
Slardar
Enchantress
Enchantresskyford
49% · 153 games47% · 171 game
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorAidar
31% · 8 games50% · 193 games
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct23:43
Team Spirit Academy 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:03:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarubikon155
55% · 159 games54% · 141 game
Morphlingbottega
Morphling
Arc Warden
Arc Warden86
little data50% · 107 games
LeshracMirele
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSunshineRR
49% · 175 games47% · 101 game
SlardarInfernal
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAidar
47% · 226 games43% · 185 games
Muertaprblms
Muerta
Enchantress
Enchantresskyford
54% · 153 games49% · 179 games
DisruptorHtrd
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 81%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3