European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
20Twicewin 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
20Twice
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 4 games
Hoodwink
Dominic · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
meLes · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
meLes · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Jakiro
Dominic · 2 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Jakiro
flacko · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
688 picks · 331 bans
Disruptor
565 picks · 605 bans
Hoodwink
468 picks · 245 bans
Mars
390 picks · 665 bans
Puck
388 picks · 1127 bans
Tusk
385 picks · 247 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 358 bans
Warlock
339 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:9
20Twice 38%Inner Circle 62%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by 20Twice in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Nature's ProphetUlnit
SlardarmeLes
Beastmasterспортик
Skywrath MageDominic
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
49% · 50 games
Naga Sirenflacko
45% · 96 games
Dark WillowFernans
Game 2prediction missed33:12
20Twice 36%Inner Circle 64%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by 20Twice in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckW1sh-
JuggernautUlnit
MarsmeLes
UnderlordNorma
SnapfireDominic
Sand Kingспортик
61% · 116 games
Chenflacko
50% · 49 games
Skywrath MageFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 75%
Series result20Twice 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2