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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tealoss 1:2
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Publicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 11 games
18%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 10 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 10 games
50%

Team Public

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shad · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Puppey · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmother
mangekyou · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Adzantick · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
687 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
561 picks · 602 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
463 picks · 240 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 664 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1122 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
379 picks · 248 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 355 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 384 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:38
Team Tea 71%Team Public 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Public in 27:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkShigetsu
54% · 64 games53% · 170 games
MarciShad
Marci
Slardar
SlardarCloud
43% · 142 games52% · 311 games
Dragon KnightAdzantick
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painxn丶e
40% · 287 games51% · 354 games
Batridermangekyou
Batrider
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
50% · 234 games51% · 223 games
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyOneJey
50% · 407 games61% · 76 games
DazzlePuppey
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct30:19
Team Tea 71%Team Public 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
55% · 257 games51% · 365 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightxn丶e
53% · 454 games41% · 259 games
Queen of Painmangekyou
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
PangolierCloud
47% · 467 games56% · 265 games
Monkey KingAdzantick
Monkey King
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
49% · 45 games48% · 268 games
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
48% · 360 games53% · 426 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed18:39
Team Tea 72%Team Public 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Public in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeShigetsu
46% · 280 games49% · 402 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackCloud
55% · 289 games48% · 237 games
UrsaShad
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
47% · 297 games50% · 289 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Pudge
PudgeOneJey
58% · 76 games52% · 191 game
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockKaori
50% · 217 games41% · 40 games
Skywrath MageJeezy
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 86%
Series resultTeam Public 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3