DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPPerrito Panzonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 4 games
Tusk
Ponlo · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
423 · 2 games
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
fortniteMan · 2 games
Iooften banned
Rein · 2 games
Perrito Panzon
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 4 games
Phoenix
MoOz · 4 games
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Earthshakeroften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Chenoften banned
MoOz · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
687 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
561 picks · 602 bans
Hoodwink
463 picks · 240 bans
Mars
387 picks · 664 bans
Puck
384 picks · 1122 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 355 bans
Pugna
338 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:10
Most Wanted 40%Perrito Panzon 60%
The model gave 60% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider423
WeaverMoOz
Void Spiritniche
TimbersawFrank
MarcifortniteMan
Queen of PainPiPi
RingmasterPonlo
HoodwinkElmisho
IoRein
BaneDuBu
Game 2prediction missed42:14
Most Wanted 40%Perrito Panzon 60%
The model gave 60% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez423
SvenK1
Puckniche
Void SpiritPiPi
BristlebackfortniteMan
UnderlordFrank
JakiroRein
BatriderElmisho
TuskPonlo
DisruptorMoOz
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 69%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2