CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
kyford · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 2 games
Treant Protector
kyford · 2 games
Venomancer
86 · 2 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 31 game
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 28 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Mirage · 22 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
687 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
561 picks · 602 bans
Hoodwink
463 picks · 240 bans
Mars
387 picks · 664 bans
Puck
384 picks · 1122 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 355 bans
Pugna
338 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:27
Team Spirit Academy 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonrubikon155
GyrocopterKami
Timbersaw86
Storm SpiritWorick
DawnbreakerSunshineRR
UndyingNefrit
Dark WillowAidar
TinydEsire
Disruptorkyford
EnchantressSe
Game 2prediction missed23:14
Team Spirit Academy 30%Zero Tenacity 70%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonrubikon155
Anti-MageKami
BeastmasterSunshineRR
TidehunterNefrit
Venomancer86
Dragon KnightWorick
Enchantresskyford
Skywrath MagedEsire
LichAidar
WarlockSe
Game 3prediction correct16:39
Team Spirit Academy 30%Zero Tenacity 70%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackrubikon155
JuggernautKami
MarciSunshineRR
Ember SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit86
BeastmasterNefrit
Warlockkyford
TuskdEsire
LichAidar
DisruptorSe
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 85%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3