DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 10 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
685 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 598 bans
Hoodwink
460 picks · 237 bans
Mars
386 picks · 660 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1115 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:12
Team Tea 59%4Pirates 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeShigetsu
Ursazvёzd
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
BristlebackCloud
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
PudgeOneJey
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
DisruptorKaori
Skywrath Mageariel
Game 2prediction correct35:27
Team Tea 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordShigetsu
Axeмистер мораль
Leshracxn丶e
SlardarNattyNarwhal
PangolierCloud
Pudgezvёzd
TinyOneJey
Hoodwinkariel
SnapfireKaori
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 69%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2