DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionTPTeam Publicloss 1:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Public
No games played over 6 months.
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
685 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 598 bans
Hoodwink
460 picks · 237 bans
Mars
386 picks · 660 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1115 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
Team Public 20%Team Tidebound 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinShad
Ursashiro
Timbersawmangekyou
PuckEcho
Dragon KnightAdzantick
Lycanniu
Shadow DemonPuppey
HoodwinkpLAnet
InvokerJeezy
Enchantressy`
Game 2prediction missed24:6
Team Public 21%Team Tidebound 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Public in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmothermangekyou
Weavershiro
AbaddonShad
Dragon KnightEcho
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Kunkkaniu
JakiroJeezy
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
BatriderPuppey
Tusky`
Game 3prediction correct20:30
Team Public 20%Team Tidebound 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonShad
Terrorbladeshiro
Lycanmangekyou
Dragon KnightEcho
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Marsniu
JakiroJeezy
WindrangerpLAnet
BanePuppey
Pugnay`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 94%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3