European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
20Twicewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 23 games
Tiny
Niku · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 13 games
Snapfire
Zayac · 12 games
Warlock
Riddys · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Niku · 11 games
Doomsignature
gotthejuice · 9 games
20Twice
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 4 games
Hoodwink
Dominic · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
meLes · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Jakiro
Dominic · 2 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
Slardaroften banned
meLes · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 598 bans
Hoodwink
460 picks · 236 bans
Mars
386 picks · 659 bans
Puck
382 picks · 1114 bans
Tusk
373 picks · 248 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 353 bans
Pugna
335 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 31%
Hero pool strength65% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Natus Vincere Junior 68%20Twice 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 20Twice.
Game 2prediction missed18:41
Natus Vincere Junior 58%20Twice 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by 20Twice in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Dragon KnightonLiTaL
SlardarmeLes
Earthshakergbc
Skywrath MageDominic
SnapfireHyugadoto
TuskGothic-
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 68%
Series result20Twice 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2