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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

20Twice

Mars
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
W1sh- · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%

Team Lynx

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
40%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 597 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
458 picks · 236 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 657 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1113 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 249 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 349 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 151 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:31
20Twice 43%Team Lynx 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckW1sh-
46% · 153 games58% · 151 game
Abaddon7jesu
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnermeLes
50% · 89 games47% · 113 games
Slardarmellojul
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDominic
49% · 99 games51% · 77 games
Night StalkerVladikTheHtiviy
Night Stalker
Game 2prediction correct29:41
20Twice 42%Team Lynx 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 49:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
46% · 206 games62% · 9 games
Phantom Lancer7jesu
Phantom Lancer
Slardar
SlardarmeLes
49% · 75 games47% · 270 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroDominic
49% · 158 games55% · 160 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 61%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2