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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

20Twice

Mars
Marsoften banned
pJonn · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 31 game
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 27 games
63%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 21 game
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 592 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
454 picks · 235 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 655 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1112 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 251 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 348 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
334 picks · 150 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:22
20Twice 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
56% · 271 game48% · 174 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarmeLes
50% · 174 games46% · 277 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroDominic
51% · 348 games50% · 124 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
42% · 84 games
Shadow DemonSe
Shadow Demon
52% · 134 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct34:55
20Twice 27%Zero Tenacity 73%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:03:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
50% · 303 games51% · 237 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsmeLes
47% · 197 games46% · 166 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDominic
47% · 202 games54% · 136 games
MarciKami
Marci
56% · 140 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
54% · 23 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 86%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2