?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 30 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 26 games
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 20 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
683 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 590 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
452 picks · 233 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1109 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 251 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 346 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 150 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total58% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:23
Kalmychata 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:37.
Game 2prediction missed9:28
Kalmychata 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 58%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2