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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
38%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 21 game
67%

Most Wanted

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
684 picks · 329 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 590 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 233 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1107 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
371 picks · 250 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 346 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 150 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
4Pirates 59%Most Wanted 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigma
Enigmaмистер мораль
54% · 141 game49% · 351 game
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Zeus
Zeuszvёzd
42% · 59 games55% · 187 games
TimbersawfortniteMan
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
45% · 430 games54% · 265 games
Monkey Kingniche
Monkey King
Tiny
Tinyariel
49% · 479 games58% · 158 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
48% · 226 games47% · 374 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:19
4Pirates 62%Most Wanted 38%
The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarzvёzd
65% · 59 games46% · 206 games
Batrider423
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
54% · 169 games37% · 74 games
Windrangerniche
Windranger
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
49% · 166 games47% · 227 games
PangolierfortniteMan
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
55% · 221 game47% · 181 game
DisruptorPonlo
Disruptor
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
55% · 82 games52% · 9 games
IoRein
Io
Game 3prediction missed47:41
4Pirates 60%Most Wanted 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 50:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzvёzd
50% · 100 games51% · 155 games
Shadow Fiendniche
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
54% · 142 games51% · 378 games
Batrider423
Batrider
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
49% · 299 games48% · 225 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
50% · 227 games47% · 268 games
DisruptorPonlo
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
51% · 285 games52% · 27 games
IoRein
Io
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 68%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3