FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:3series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Team Falconswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Banesignature
Kataomi · 36 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 30 games
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 23 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
Windranger
Save- · 22 games
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 39 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 20 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 20 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
681 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 588 bans
Hoodwink
450 picks · 232 bans
Puck
387 picks · 1109 bans
Mars
380 picks · 654 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 252 bans
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 344 bans
Warlock
337 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 80%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 8
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:16
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKiritych
BristlebackATF
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Monkey KinggpK~
Dragon KnightSkiter
Shadow DemonSave-
Skywrath MageCr1t-
TuskKataomi
SnapfireSneyking
Game 2prediction correct4:23
BETBOOM TEAM 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKiritych
AbaddonSkiter
TimbersawMieRo
SlarkATF
Ember SpiritgpK~
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Keeper of the LightSave-
PugnaSneyking
TuskKataomi
GrimstrokeCr1t-
Game 3prediction correct19:27
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKiritych
WeaverSkiter
Nature's ProphetgpK~
DoomATF
Primal BeastMieRo
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
TuskSave-
MuertaCr1t-
JakiroKataomi
PugnaSneyking
Game 4prediction correct17:28
BETBOOM TEAM 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 56:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKiritych
Troll WarlordSkiter
BeastmasterMieRo
TimbersawATF
SlardargpK~
Primal BeastMalr1ne
MuertaSave-
PugnaSneyking
TuskKataomi
LionCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4