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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 35 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 22 games
77%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 20 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 18 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
65%

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 26 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
miCKe · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
681 picks · 329 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 592 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 1112 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 654 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 251 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
339 picks · 151 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 340 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 49%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head9 – 2
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:45
Team Falcons 67%Team Liquid 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
43% · 87 games49% · 8 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 267 games52% · 115 games
AxeAce
Axe
Magnus
MagnusATF
51% · 146 games48% · 112 games
SlardarNisha
Slardar
Chen
ChenSneyking
59% · 137 games50% · 152 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
54% · 21 game49% · 271 game
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct30:13
Team Falcons 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
55% · 239 games36% · 7 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
60% · 242 games47% · 231 game
TimbersawNisha
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
58% · 181 game36% · 78 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
55% · 195 games47% · 255 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Lion
LionCr1t-
54% · 127 games45% · 413 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct33:14
Team Falcons 68%Team Liquid 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
53% · 199 games48% · 289 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
49% · 174 games43% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierATF
45% · 414 games49% · 8 games
KezmiCKe
Kez
Chen
ChenSneyking
62% · 178 games51% · 209 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
52% · 25 games49% · 307 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3