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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 18 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 16 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 14 games
64%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TA2000 · 13 games
62%

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 28 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windranger
Save- · 22 games
55%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 21 game
62%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
680 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 592 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 1111 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 653 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 249 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
337 picks · 151 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 339 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Yandex
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:30
Team Yandex 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
52% · 270 games51% · 238 games
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
50% · 197 games47% · 261 game
PuckgpK~
Puck
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
46% · 135 games52% · 164 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
54% · 113 games53% · 197 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Warlock
WarlockMalady
47% · 266 games49% · 121 game
BaneKataomi
Bane
Game 2prediction missed33:13
Team Yandex 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWatson
52% · 293 games53% · 209 games
Dragon KnightKiritych
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
49% · 171 game46% · 367 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNoticed
49% · 171 game57% · 121 game
TidehunterMieRo
Tidehunter
Pugna
PugnaMalady
46% · 293 games50% · 234 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSaksa
53% · 239 games46% · 236 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct8:21
Team Yandex 50%BETBOOM TEAM 50%
The model gave 50% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 48:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
56% · 325 games49% · 112 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
50% · 412 games48% · 351 game
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
49% · 428 games50% · 441 game
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireMalady
54% · 311 games47% · 256 games
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSaksa
47% · 122 games50% · 438 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 52%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3