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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 16 games
50%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 13 games
62%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 41 game
51%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 37 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
678 picks · 327 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 587 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 1139 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 657 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 253 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
344 picks · 895 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 154 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:23
Team Yandex 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
58% · 192 games52% · 210 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
50% · 337 games40% · 38 games
BroodmotherBOOM
Broodmother
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNoticed
48% · 189 games48% · 276 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Slark
SlarkSaksa
52% · 81 game50% · 169 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMalady
52% · 276 games46% · 382 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed25:7
Team Yandex 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
46% · 272 games45% · 103 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
50% · 119 games46% · 401 game
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNoticed
59% · 107 games48% · 179 games
LeshracLorenof
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
50% · 224 games58% · 161 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Tusk
TuskSaksa
51% · 339 games48% · 217 games
Shadow Demonyamich
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct45:27
Team Yandex 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 1:04:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
52% · 249 games49% · 324 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
43% · 393 games46% · 202 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Leshrac
LeshracChira JUNIOR
48% · 173 games60% · 135 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Pugna
PugnaMalady
51% · 287 games46% · 290 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
55% · 243 games50% · 394 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 51%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3