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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Cobraloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Cobra

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
K1 · 3 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
K1 · 2 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
MoOz · 2 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 2 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%

Vici Gaming

Ursa
Ursasignature
lou · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Dy · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Yang · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
677 picks · 326 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 582 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
439 picks · 228 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1161 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 649 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 256 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 156 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:20
Team Cobra 42%Vici Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaK1
50% · 223 games49% · 347 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPiPi
55% · 307 games49% · 211 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFrank
49% · 122 games45% · 342 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroMoOz
50% · 401 game42% · 180 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanElmisho
61% · 245 games50% · 218 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:39
Team Cobra 41%Vici Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordK1
56% · 58 games48% · 201 game
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracPiPi
44% · 72 games53% · 137 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
47% · 124 games59% · 16 games
ViperXm
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkElmisho
44% · 140 games51% · 25 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Silencer
SilencerMoOz
48% · 108 games55% · 123 games
BaneDy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 66%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2