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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 25 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Save- · 22 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 20 games
65%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 25 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 24 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 20 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 19 games
74%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
82%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
75%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
677 picks · 325 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 582 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
437 picks · 228 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1160 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 650 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 257 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 401 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 156 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head3 – 9
Model total68% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:29
BETBOOM TEAM 37%PARIVISION 63%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
41% · 33 games60% · 37 games
HuskarSatanic
Huskar
Necrophos
NecrophosgpK~
57% · 3 games53% · 121 game
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Axe
AxeMieRo
43% · 92 games56% · 68 games
Night StalkerDM
Night Stalker
Lion
LionSave-
38% · 114 games59% · 100 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroKataomi
47% · 229 games59% · 145 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Game 2prediction missed26:17
BETBOOM TEAM 38%PARIVISION 62%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 49:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKiritych
48% · 135 gameslittle data
KezSatanic
Kez
Puck
PuckgpK~
41% · 320 games53% · 228 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
45% · 140 games50% · 265 games
Void SpiritNo[o]ne
Void Spirit
Muerta
MuertaSave-
43% · 176 games58% · 342 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Tusk
TuskKataomi
45% · 244 games61% · 180 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Game 3prediction missed41:9
BETBOOM TEAM 38%PARIVISION 62%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKiritych
49% · 219 games42% · 273 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetgpK~
55% · 291 game47% · 467 games
Storm SpiritSatanic
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
52% · 217 games46% · 233 games
MarsDM
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroKataomi
47% · 342 games56% · 327 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Tusk
TuskSave-
45% · 430 games60% · 199 games
ChenDukalis
Chen
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 68%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3