FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 17 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 14 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 13 games
Aurora Gaming
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
Tiny
Nightfall · 30 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
Tusk
Mira · 29 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
669 picks · 322 bans
Disruptor
564 picks · 578 bans
Hoodwink
427 picks · 225 bans
Puck
405 picks · 1160 bans
Mars
383 picks · 642 bans
Tusk
359 picks · 259 bans
Pugna
354 picks · 400 bans
Queen of Pain
352 picks · 939 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Team Spirit 63%Aurora Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYatoro
AbaddonNightfall
Dark SeerCollapse
AxeTORONTOTOKYO
SlardarLarl
PuckMikoto
Bounty Hunterrue
ChenOli
HoodwinkPanto
SnapfireMira
Game 2prediction missed20:39
Team Spirit 62%Aurora Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 48:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
AbaddonNightfall
LeshracLarl
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
SlardarCollapse
Storm SpiritMikoto
DisruptorPanto
EnchantressOli
Tuskrue
HoodwinkMira
Game 3prediction correct33:12
Team Spirit 65%Aurora Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYatoro
SvenNightfall
Void SpiritLarl
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
PangolierCollapse
PuckMikoto
Pugnarue
BatriderMira
DisruptorPanto
JakiroOli
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3