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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 30 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
74%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 19 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
56%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 16 games
69%

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 34 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 25 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Save- · 22 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
667 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 580 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
425 picks · 225 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1157 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 641 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 259 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
352 picks · 939 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 6
Model total84% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Team Falcons 70%BETBOOM TEAM 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 369 games48% · 153 games
TimbersawgpK~
Timbersaw
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
53% · 198 games52% · 261 game
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 222 games56% · 160 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 212 games49% · 97 games
Bounty HunterSave-
Bounty Hunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
52% · 17 games50% · 347 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed23:27
Team Falcons 69%BETBOOM TEAM 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
49% · 134 games51% · 94 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
57% · 238 games49% · 161 game
Primal BeastgpK~
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarATF
53% · 115 games41% · 203 games
Queen of PainMieRo
Queen of Pain
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 150 games48% · 93 games
Bounty HunterSave-
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
50% · 185 games51% · 271 game
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct34:14
Team Falcons 69%BETBOOM TEAM 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
53% · 202 games44% · 156 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Magnus
MagnusATF
55% · 117 games48% · 178 games
TimbersawgpK~
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 263 games46% · 204 games
Queen of PainMieRo
Queen of Pain
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 130 games50% · 46 games
PudgeSave-
Pudge
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
50% · 12 games58% · 140 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 84%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3