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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 20 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 19 games
58%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%

Vici Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
lou · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Yang · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
666 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 578 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 224 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1155 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 639 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 259 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 398 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
352 picks · 938 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Team Liquid 66%Vici Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
50% · 4 games46% · 156 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Lycan
LycanAce
51% · 118 games51% · 369 games
BeastmasterXm
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
46% · 380 games63% · 130 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
Pugna
PugnatOfu
51% · 187 games49% · 124 games
Void SpiritpLAnet
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskBoxi
47% · 362 games48% · 272 games
JakiroDy
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Team Liquid 65%Vici Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNisha
53% · 266 games52% · 201 game
Ursalou
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
50% · 301 game45% · 143 games
Primal BeastXm
Primal Beast
Kez
KezmiCKe
little data45% · 129 games
SlardarWs
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
49% · 358 games50% · 309 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
53% · 157 games51% · 300 games
JakiroDy
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2