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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 32 games
66%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
77%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 25 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
kasane · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 14 games
86%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
665 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 578 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 224 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1154 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 639 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 259 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 398 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
351 picks · 938 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
1w Team 42%Team Yandex 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMunkushi~
50% · 195 games53% · 177 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
39% · 198 games54% · 162 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarSSS
49% · 117 games52% · 129 games
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Void Spirit
Ringmaster
Ringmasterswedenstrong
51% · 174 games52% · 240 games
GyrocopterSaksa
Gyrocopter
Jakiro
Jakirokasane
49% · 271 game52% · 247 games
SnapfireMalady
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct18:31
1w Team 43%Team Yandex 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMunkushi~
53% · 252 games50% · 326 games
GyrocopterWatson
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
45% · 479 games51% · 377 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
52% · 285 games50% · 149 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Jakiro
Jakirokasane
48% · 307 games51% · 285 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmasterswedenstrong
47% · 233 games53% · 419 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 63%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2